Alex Pereira was the person of the hour in 2024. Is his time up now that the calendar has turned?
The sunshine heavyweight champion’s reign has been undeniably spectacular, however few would argue he hasn’t benefited from defending in opposition to fighters with a restricted capability to reap the benefits of his grappling deficiencies. That received’t be the case in Saturday’s UFC 313 most important occasion, when Pereira lastly squares off with the streaking Magomed Ankalaev.
Although Ankalaev has placed on a number of medical placing performances, he’s proven he has wrestling in his again pocket, too, and that might be the important thing to fixing the “Poatan Puzzle.”
MMA Preventing’s Alexander Okay. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew put their heads collectively to check what the tip of Pereira’s scorching streak may appear to be and what else to look out for at UFC 313.
1. If Alex Pereira loses this Saturday, how does it occur?
Lee: I’m all for maintaining the martial arts aside, however Magomed Ankalaev needs to be mixing it like DJ Spinderella if he needs to dethrone Alex Pereira.
Certain, Ankalaev is a superb striker and if he can catch “Poatan” and knock him out, it will vault him to a different stage of status. So there’s incentive for him to back up all of his tough talk and throw fingers with Pereira. It’s simply that he’s higher served, uh, not doing that, and that’s how the combat ought to play out if he and his group have any sense.
That stated, I really assume Ankalaev can find yourself with the perfect of each worlds right here, utilizing his wrestling to throw Pereira off to set him up for a KO/TKO later within the combat. To invert a cliché, Pereira’s reign will finish with a bang, not a whimper.
Meshew: It might be utterly loopy for Ankalaev to KO Pereira. Clearly, Pereira is the superior striker, however Ankalaev hits onerous, MMA is bizarre, and Pereira isn’t a spring hen. That is additionally his fourth combat in lower than 12 months and there’s a motive champions don’t often combat that steadily: it’s onerous. That type of tempo can break you down in refined methods so it might occur.
That being stated, if Ankalaev wins, it’s as a result of he’s not a moron. Putting with Alex Pereira is a foul thought until you’re Israel Adesanya, and even then it’s 50/50. Pereira is a greater defensive wrestler than many consider however he’s not Jose Aldo. If Pereira loses it’s as a result of Ankalaev is the superior grappler and implements his will.
Heck: To indicate my hand, I’m selecting Pereira, and I really feel fairly good about it. However for the sake of the query, if Poatan sees his unimaginable run come to an finish, Dana White goes to make use of the identical line he used after Belal Muhammad dethroned Leon Edwards: “It wasn’t a barnburner.”
Ankalaev is absolutely, actually good, and if he can land takedowns early and infrequently, he has an excellent likelihood to win. But when he goes via together with his promise to remain standing the entire time, it’s not going to go effectively for him. Ought to Ankalaev win, I don’t consider it will likely be an exciting affair, and Pereira is on his again for 75 % or extra of the combat.
2. Can Justin Gaethje or Rafael Fiziev lay declare to a title shot within the new co-main occasion?
Heck: Let’s be clear about this: The reply needs to be completely not. However, that is the UFC, and that is 2025, and we’ve realized—particularly on this division—availability is your finest good friend. So I’m not ruling it out, nevertheless it’s going to take one thing particular, and a bizarre subsequent few months for it to occur.
I don’t assume Rafael Fiziev has a lot of a shot until he completely obliterates Justin Gaethje with a Spotlight of the 12 months contender. Gaethje, nonetheless, is in an incredible place with the UFC. Dana White loves him, and he ought to, as a result of everybody else does and now he’s doing the promotion a favor. If he dominates the returning Fiziev, particularly if he will get a end, I received’t be shocked if Gaethje will get a title shot. The massive query then turns into who would he combat? As a result of if Jack Della Maddalena beats Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, it received’t be Islam Makhachev.
Lee: Yup. Vacant.
I’m piggybacking off My Greatest Pal’s reply right here, enjoying with the concept that “JDM” scores an upset victory in Montreal (sorry, Belal!), a consequence that clears the best way for Makhachev to chase a second title at welterweight, and setting off a sequence response of Muhammad transferring as much as middleweight (there you go, Belal!) and Topuria dealing with the UFC 313 co-main occasion winner for the vacant belt.
That sounds screwy as hell, however we’re set for a bizarre and wacky second half of 2025, so why not predict one thing dumb like Topuria vs. Fiziev for the light-weight title? Crazier issues have occurred and will occur. Jon Jones might combat Tom Aspinall. The PFL might generate constructive PR in 2025. The GFL might really schedule a present.
Let’s get loopy.
Meshew: No. That’s why this combat is kinda lame. If Fiziev wins, it’s a very good win however he misplaced his earlier two. That’s not getting a title combat. And if Gaethje wins, it’s a very good win however he simply bought bolted by Max Holloway in probably the most memorable and iconic KOs ever. Neither man is preventing for the belt subsequent (barring numerous issues taking place). As an alternative this combat is a bout to see who fights Dan Hooker, which is what we already had, that means we’re simply treading water right here.
AK is correct in that if JDM beats Belal, Islam is instantly transferring as much as welterweight, so perhaps that helps their case, however even then, it’s in all probability Topuria vs. Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan.
This might be a enjoyable combat that’s in the end meaningless, which kinda sucks given we solely have a couple of Gaethje fights left, at most.
Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photos
3. Outdoors of the top-2 fights, who’s the fighter to observe for on this card?
Meshew: The combat to observe is Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya as a result of that’s licensed sauce, however the fighter is my big-small son, Jalin Turner.
I’ve an irrational love of Turner as a result of he’s a freakishly huge light-weight with a singular and pleasant sport and large deficiencies (you like individuals for his or her faults, not for being excellent!). Sadly, Turner is on a reasonably powerful run proper now and so he’s preventing to carry his spot within the top-15 and so he must show he’s nonetheless bought the juice. Ignacio Bahamondes is a rattling good fighter however I would like Turner to go full Tarantula on him with the membership and sub. I feel he’ll and other people will keep in mind that Jalin Turner is a risk to anybody he steps within the cage with.
Heck: It’s Mauricio Ruffy.
This man, very like his fellow Preventing Nerds Jean Silva and Carlos Prates, is much-watch TV. There received’t be any boring Ruffy fights, however how good is he? Is he a man who might be of a Drew Dober-like ilk the place we’re simply pumped he’s preventing and at finest he’s a backend of the top-15 type of man? Or is Ruffy a fighter now we have to regulate that may climb the ranks within the sport’s finest division?
We received’t totally have our reply Saturday, but when he goes on the market and runs over a veteran like King Inexperienced—who has spoiled many a celebration over time—I do know I’ll proceed to lean extra in direction of the latter.
Lee: Individuals, it’s me. You realize I’m selecting an Final Fighter winner.
Regardless of being tagged as a top prospect to watch on the Brazilian scene all the best way again in 2021, Mairon Santos was inexplicably the second-to-last featherweight fighter picked on TUF 32. “The Legend” outpointed some stiff competitors on his strategy to the finale, the place he routed Kaan Ofli in a bit of over a spherical to assert a event title. Nonetheless a couple of months shy of his twenty fifth birthday, Santos is at the moment in Las Vegas underneath the tutelage of Xtreme Couture mastermind Eric Nicksick and has all of the makings of a promising featherweight prospect.
A showcase efficiency over Francis Marshall will put Santos on monitor for an enormous 2025 marketing campaign and within the hunt for a top-15 spot in 2026.
