UFC 311 roundtable: Are Islam Makhachev and Merab Dvalishvili both due for defeat?

Islam Makhachev and Merab Dvalishvili are two of essentially the most dominant fighters in all of MMA.

However can they keep away from a bitter begin to their 2025 campaigns?

We discover out this Saturday as each champions put their titles on the road at UFC 311. Makhachev defends the light-weight title towards Arman Tsarukyan in the principle occasion, which serves as a rematch of their April 2019 encounter that ended with Makhachev’s hand raised. One battle prior, Dvalishvili seems for his first title protection because the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov challenges him for the bantamweight belt.

You must return to 2018 to search out Dvalishvili’s most up-to-date loss and additional again to 2015 for Makhachev’s, so the percentages are understandably of their favor. All they do is win. Nevertheless, the identical might be stated for Tsarukyan (9-1 since dropping to Makhachev) and Nurmagomedov, the latter of whom is a sterling 18-0 to start his professional profession.

In brief: these title fights are superior! So the MMA Preventing crew of Alexander Ok. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew obtained collectively for early predictions of how UFC 311’s championship fights may prove, in addition to what else to look at for on the primary UFC pay-per-view of the yr.

1. What number of instances can we hear “And New” on Saturday?

Lee: You’ll hear it one time and also you’ll hear it earlier than the principle occasion kicks off.

It’s no secret I’ve been on the Umar Nurmagomedov practice for ages and there’s no turning again now. Query the names on his résumé all you need, anybody who has paid consideration to what Nurmagomedov has carried out contained in the cage will inform you he has all of the makings of a champion, and a dominant one at that. None of that is to downplay what Merab Dvalishvili has achieved even when he goes one and carried out as a champion, as a result of he would have had his shot on the belt years in the past if his shut good friend Aljamain Sterling hadn’t been holding it and several other of the fighters Nurmagomedov knocked off on his 11-fight streak are former champions.

However Nurmagomedov is simply that rattling good and if there’s one factor you possibly can’t battle, it’s the longer term. It’s Umar’s time.

As for the principle occasion, Arman Tsarukyan goes to present Islam Makhachev hell for 5 rounds… and it nonetheless received’t be sufficient to dethrone the light-weight king. There’s a cause Makhachev reigns as MMA Fighting’s Pound-for-Pound No. 1 (sorry, not sorry, Dana), that being there’s merely no higher fighter on the planet proper now. Tsarukyan may cause a seismic shakeup if he upsets Makhachev, however I predict he falls simply quick.

Meshew: As soon as.

The primary occasion battle between Makhachev and Tsarukyan is superior and I’m fairly darn excited for it. For my part, it’s the very best battle that may be made in MMA proper now, talent for talent. However for as great as I imagine the battle can be, I imagine Makhachev retains his title and spot atop the pound-for-pound rankings.

In some methods, Makhachev presents the worst doable matchup for Tsarukyan as a result of he’s just a bit bit higher in each class. Tsarukyan is a terrific wrestler and grappler, however we’ve seen how that performs out towards Makhachev—he’s adequate to compete and make issues fascinating, however a small margin behind. Tsarukyan has additionally come alongside within the hanging, however should you rewatch their first battle, you’ll discover that Makhachev is the one who barely strikes in it. Islam is healthier defensively on the ft and way more assured in his standup than he was, whereas Tsarukyan continues to be piecing issues collectively.

If these two fought in a yr, my opinion may change, however I imagine Makhachev stays in his prime and Tsarukyan has but to peak, giving the champion a determined benefit.

The co-main occasion is a unique story although. I’ve stated for years that Nurmagomedov was a future champion and he’ll make me proper this weekend. Merab’s cardio and stress can break many males, however they received’t quantity to a lot towards a superior grappler with significantly better hanging. Merab must attempt to steal an early spherical after which hope he can Merab issues up within the championship rounds, however I don’t assume that’s occurring. Umar Nurmagomedov is about to ascend.

Heck: I’ll say (at the least) one time, but it surely wouldn’t shock me if each titles change palms.

I’m not going to mince phrases as a result of you understand the place I’m going with this: Tsarukyan will depart UFC 311 with essentially the most troublesome championship to win in MMA. He’ll defeat Makhachev, resulting in one of the vital anticipated trilogy fights in UFC historical past. In all honesty, that is me staying on model, however I’ve believed Tsarukyan can be UFC light-weight champion from the very first time I noticed a clip of him combating in 2017. From there, I’ve by no means wavered from that championship prediction, and I’m all-in in 2025 (similar to I used to be in 2024).

The co-main occasion may be very fascinating. For the UFC 311 Watch Social gathering, I’ve a wager on Dvalishvili. I obtained him at +285, and “The Machine” being that huge of an underdog to anyone at bantamweight is an automated play. Nurmagomedov may be very, superb, however I’ve maintained from the start that Dvalishvili combating him now ought to’ve all the time been the transfer, regardless of his foolish callout of Petr Yan (that may come subsequent).

I’m in the end going to stay with Merab to retain the title, as a result of till I see his double-digit successful streak truly come to an finish, it’s frankly too arduous to think about.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

2. Outdoors of the top-2 fights, what’s the must-see matchup of the principle card?

Meshew: Anybody not saying Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill is a liar.

Prochazka is within the rarified tier of fighter which might be legitimately must-see TV. In six UFC fights he’s received 5 bonuses and the 2 fights he didn’t earn a bonus in have been his knockout losses to Alex Pereira, who obtained a bonus each instances!

Prochazka is gentle heavyweight Justin Gaethje, however on high of being unmissable within the cage, he’s additionally a bona fide loopy individual exterior of it. You could possibly make up nearly any story about Prochazka and it could be plausible. He claims to coach with Bigfoot within the Himalayas? Positive. He sleeps solely two hours an evening and does so standing and along with his eyes open? Sounds proper. He as soon as tracked a bear by way of the woods for 3 days and killed it with rusty spoon? Wouldn’t shock me.

Jiri Prochazka is all the time and perpetually the best reply.

Heck: Jed? Actually?

First off, you’re 100% right, as a result of Prochazka vs. Hill is essentially the most intriguing non-title battle on the books in fairly a while, and a battle I’ve needed since Hill beat Glover Teixeira. The stress on the shoulders of Hill is off the freaking charts, whereas Prochazka is in must-win territory in his personal proper.

I’m simply shocked you didn’t go along with my reply: The reigning, defending, undisputed, perpetually GOATed middleweighty-middleweight champ Reinier de Ridder is making his UFC pay-per-view debut, and he’ll accomplish that towards Kevin Holland. The over-under on stomach laughs as we watch this battle is at 3.5, and I’m critically contemplating the over. Holland is all the time enjoyable, plus he hilariously talks crap, whereas “RDR” is simply an all-gas, no brakes, however but, very efficient foolish goose on the market.

That battle goes to rule, although there’s an actual likelihood it will get forgotten within the storyline chaos within the aftermath.

Lee: Gents, you’ve left me to wax poetic about Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano and you understand what? I’m glad to do it.

Beneil Dariush will go down as one of many unappreciated fighters of this period. A lot of that’s his personal doing as advertising and marketing himself isn’t certainly one of his strengths, to place it kindly, however a few of additionally it is out of his management. All Dariush has carried out is fought the very best of the very best of the light-weight division, delivered thrilling performances, and saved himself controversy-free (in all probability to a fault). He’s misplaced two straight and as he approaches his thirty sixth birthday, this might be the final time we see him carry out on pay-per-view.

There are worse methods to exit than passing the torch to Moicano. If you wish to see somebody refuse to be forged into irrelevance, simply research the rise of “Cash Moicano,” who went from light-weight also-ran to one of the vital seen personalities within the division. And simply as importantly, he retains racking up Ws, so not solely is he in line for an thrilling battle towards Dariush, he has a official shot of combating Makhachev (or Tsarukyan) later this yr if he retains issues up.

The 155-pound division guidelines and we’re blessed with two elite matchups this Saturday.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

3. Which preliminary card fighter is about to set themselves up for an enormous 2025 marketing campaign?

Meshew: There’s an apparent reply right here however in alternate for speaking about my massive fool violence king in part two, I’ll depart that one for others. As a substitute, I’ll clarify why Rinya Nakamura is about to interrupt out in 2025.

Nakamura is a prospect I’m very excessive on. He’s undoubtedly a bit older at 29 (turning 30 in March) however he has the makings of a official top-10 bantamweight. In any case, we’re speaking in regards to the U23 World Champion in wrestling, right here. For context, Bo Nickal, a person nearly universally believed to be probably the greatest prospects within the sport, can be a U23 World Champion. If Nakamura lived in the US he’d have wrestled in faculty and possibly been a a number of time NCAA champion as effectively. Nakamura had an actual shot on the Olympics, however the COVID delay led him to maneuver to MMA, and we’re higher off for it.

Like Nickal, Nakamura nonetheless has a protracted solution to develop, however he’s already proven his wrestling interprets to the cage and he’s a prepared striker. Nakamura goes to run over Muin Gafurov to maneuver to 3-0 within the UFC, at which level he’ll begin shifting up the bantamweight ladder for actual. This present crop of ascending Japanese skills are all nice and Nakamura might have the very best upside.

Lee: It’s Payton Talbott. What can I say? Once I see low-hanging fruit, I snatch it proper up.

Final yr after we have been drafting MMA fantasy groups (hey, check out the 2025 edition!), I’ll have been a bit too excited once I picked Talbott with out him even having a battle booked to shut out 2024. It doesn’t matter, he’s right here now, and he has a real check forward of him. One which if he passes, establishes him as one of many 5 finest prospects within the UFC proper now, assuming he isn’t that already.

Raoni Barcelos is not any walkover. He’s been a professional for 12 years, has over twice as many fights as Talbott, and he’s been dealing with sturdy competitors for almost all of his UFC run. It’s completely doable that is an excessive amount of, too quickly for younger Talbott.

That stated, Talbott has been a pleasure to look at to this point, and even when he leaves California with a aggressive resolution loss, that ought to be thought of a optimistic mark on his document. The sky is the restrict for the eclectic 26-year-old and he has an opportunity to soar if every little thing comes collectively for him as he takes half in his first UFC pay-per-view lineup.

Heck: Talbott is the simple reply right here, little doubt about it—and now, it’s formally the proper one.

Talbott in all probability has the very best ceiling of any of the prelim fighters, the difficulty is he’s in one of many deepest divisions within the sport, and his path up the ladder might be one which stretches in 2026 on the earliest. Might he be a fighter who goes 4-0 with 4 finishes? Definitely, however he’s not a in an enormous rush.

My authentic decide was Bogdan Guskov! Why? For the precise reverse cause. Mild heavyweight is a flipping horrible division. Completely terrible, and one the place being thrilling (he’s) and out there could be rewarded extra so than in some other division within the UFC. Ask Khalil Rountree about that. Sadly, his opponent Johnny Walker suffered a “dangerous damage” and is out of the battle, so even when reports are true that Guskov has a short-notice substitute, I’ll formally default to Talbott as a result of he’s going to be one of many breakout fighters of the yr.

A win over Barcelos, at the least in my eyes, means one thing at 135. If Talbott does what I feel he’ll do at UFC 311, will probably be very fascinating to see what sort of matchups the UFC will take into account for him. I assume they’ll attempt to discover somebody with a quantity subsequent to his identify.