With an off day on Monday and an enormous five-game house collection on the horizon in opposition to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Chicago Cubs’ potential for profitable the Nationwide League Central simply retains sliding downhill.
According to FanGraphs, the Cubs entered Monday with simply an 18.8 p.c probability to win the division. Examine that to the 81.1 p.c probability the Brewers should safe the NL Central’s high spot and it is simple to see simply how impactful the subsequent few video games may very well be on the North Facet.
After a three-game collection in Toronto in opposition to the Blue Jays, Chicago returns to Wrigley Area for eight division video games, internet hosting the Pirates for 3 earlier than Milwaukee invades for 5 video games (together with the make-up recreation from June 18 that was postponed by climate). These 5 video games will even be the final time the Cubs face Milwaukee this season, with the season collection to this point cut up 4-4.
For the Cubs, the urgency comes after latest play has taken successful on their document. On June 17, the Cubs had been 45-28 and had a 6.5-game lead on the Brewers within the division. Additionally they had an 80.3 p.c probability (per FanGraphs) to win the NL Central. Milwaukee’s quantity on the time was simply 8.7 p.c.
Nevertheless, Chicago has gone simply 22-22 since that point. In the meantime, the Brewers have advanced into considered one of baseball’s finest groups, going 17-4 for the reason that All-Star break and leapfrogging the Cubs within the division standings, holding a six-game lead over Chicago coming into their Monday house recreation in opposition to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
With that in thoughts, it’s extremely potential the upcoming Cubs-Brewers collection might decide if Milwaukee can have an unbreakable stranglehold on the division or if Chicago has an opportunity to be greater than only a wild-card workforce in 2025.
Proper now, the numbers are saying that would properly be Chicago’s destiny, a stark turnaround from the projections in late June.
